UK Labour has just won a historic majority in the recent British parliamentary elections. After 14 years of Conservative rule, Britain now has a new government, but what does this mean for China and the rest of the Global South?
Palestine
Labour has committed in its manifesto to a sovereign Palestinian state within the framework of the two-state solution. The manifesto even goes so far as to say “ Palestinian statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people” and that “ it is not in the gift of any neighbour.”
However, anyone hoping that a Labour victory would see the UK follow Ireland in recognizing Palestinian statehood or that the new government would freeze the £42 million in annual aid to Israel will be disappointed.
Shortly before the election, the Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer appeared to walk back the manifesto commitment, saying that the recognition of Palestine is a “process” and must “be at the right time in the process because we need a viable Palestinian state alongside a safe and secure Israel.” This is in keeping with his resolute refusal to back various pro-Palestinian measures that have been proposed in the British parliament since the October 7th attacks.
In all likelihood, then, we will see in the new Labour government embrace more conciliatory rhetoric around the Palestine issue to appease sections of the party’s voting base (despite clear national victory Labour lost several seats to pro-Palestine independent candidates). However, in practical terms, Starmer is no more likely to put pressure on Israel than Rishi Sunak or Joe Biden.
Ukraine
On Ukraine, Labour is following European geopolitical orthodoxy. Labor has committed the UK to continued military, financial, and diplomatic support for Ukraine, as well as campaigning for a path towards NATO membership for the country. Since the start of the war the UK has given £12.5 billion to Ukraine, and so Labour’s commitment represents a huge financial burden at a time of economic crisis for the UK. Given that the new government has vowed to sort out the UK’s budget, it remains an open question where this Ukraine money will come from.
China
The previous government was one of the most anti-China British governments in recent memory. This has all contributed to a febrile atmosphere among the political and media class in London, and culminated in a serious of ever more bizarre spy scare stories coming out of parliament.
Labour appears to want to reverse this anti-China trend. China is mentioned only twice in Labour’s manifesto, and then only to criticize Conservative policy. However, David Lammy, Labour’s new Foreign Secretary, has vowed to hold an audit reassessing the UK-China relationship within 100 days of taking office.
What exactly this will mean in policy terms is still unclear, and we will probably have to wait for the publication of the audit to find out. However, having elsewhere called the United States “an indispensable ally” and championing a new UK-EU security pact in the manifesto, the space for Labour to build up a China policy independent from Washington or Brussels is probably pretty small.
Global South
Labour’s rhetoric around Global South countries is pretty positive, championing “a new approach based on genuine respect and partnership with the Global South to support our common interests.” What those common interests are, however, are unclear. There are vague references towards helping developing countries with issues such as poverty, general instability, climate change, and combating unspecified “malign actors”. What this means in practical policy terms isn’t really articulated.
Labour have said they will keep British development goals aligned with foreign policy, so we probably shouldn’t expect a particularly radical reappraisal of the UK’s relationship with the Global South.
The one solid policy proposal is a commitment to spending 0.7% of GDP on development, but only “as soon as fiscal circumstances allow” - so don’t expect anything anytime soon.
The United Kingdom has become an increasingly insular country where the political and media class appears incurious about the world beyond the United Kingdom and its close ally, the United States. Among UK voters, the deteriorating living standards have meant that foreign policy, with the exception of Gaza, is fairly low down the list of priorities. All this has meant that while in opposition, Labour could afford to be inscrutably vague about their foreign policy goals. In other countries, this lack of preparation may be a cause for concern, but in the UK, which long ago outsourced its major foreign policy decisions to the US, it probably will not matter all that much. Labour will probably shy away from the more bombastic rhetoric of the likes of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and put more of a premium on co-operation with international partners. However, there will probably be more continuity than rupture in the British Foreign Office. Labour is, at its core, still committed to a Western order which sees the United States firmly ensconced at the top and the United Kingdom as a valued and rewarded lieutenant. The UK may have a new government, but there seem to be precious few new foreign policy ideas.
Further Reading
Keir Starmer's first speech as Prime Minister: 5 July 2024
The new cabinet: Who is in Sir Keir Starmer's top team
How pro-Israeli donors are supporting Labour
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I wish I could feel some optimism regarding the new Labour Govt. but I think any changes will be minor cosmetic tweaks, to throw a few crumbs to the peasants.
The Labour party in Britain is in thrall to the billionaire class just like tories, as is the case in most western, so called democracies and they will do whatever the billionaires want.
As Zaphod Beeblebrox said in The Hitchhikers Guide, 'The President doesn't have any power. The Presidents job is to draw attention away from the Power' and as you said Jingjing in one of your YouTube pieces, in China you can't change the party but you can change the policies whereas in the Western so-called democracies, you change the party but not the policies.
Alexander discusses the results of the UK-Election:
https://odysee.com/@AlexanderMercouris:a/orban-meets-putin,-seeks-peace-terms,-eu:a
Starmer "won", because the Tories lost massively. But Labour also lost votes.